MERICS China Forecast 2021

2020 was a turbulent year for everything China related. In 2021, countries around the world will face the double challenge of dealing with the Covid-19 health crisis and bracing for the economic fallout it will cause. While promising vaccine breakthroughs look set to usher in the end of the pandemic, the economics and politics of vaccine distribution will test the international community. At the same time, a series of critical developments will affect EU-China relations: the CCP’s 100th birthday, the publication of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, a new US President and a new German Chancellor.

To anticipate what 2021 might have in store for us, MERICS once again hosted its annual China Forecast event on January 13, 2021 in collaboration with our media partner POLITICO Europe. The event provided a platform for exchanges on the most important current trends in China and what they entail for European counterparts in 2021.

Leading China specialists, public sector representatives as well as MERICS experts and renowned China correspondents commented on and debated these assessments and their implications. The two panels focussed on China’s domestic politics and economy as well as on Europe-China relations in 2021. The event was live-streamed on Youtube, where you can also find a recording of the discussions:

MERICS also used the opportunity to present findings from a survey among leading European experts and professionals and among a wider global audience on key developments in Europe-China relations. You can visit the MERICS China Forecast 2021 website for more information on the survey findings or download the full survey results as PDF.

For more details on the contents of the MERICS China Forecast 2021 event, please see the agenda below.

14:00      Welcome and introduction by Mikko Huotari, Executive Director, MERICS
 
14:15     Panel 1 – What’s in Store for China’s Domestic Politics and Economy

• George Magnus, Associate, China Centre, University of Oxford
• Rana Mitter, Professor of the History and Politics of Modern China, University of Oxford
• Arthur R. Kroeber, Founding Partner & Head of Research, Gavekal Dragonomics Beijing, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings
• Kristin Shi-Kupfer, Senior Associate, MERICS and Professor for Contemporary China, University of Trier  
  
  Moderator: Bernhard Bartsch, Senior Expert China and Asia Pacific, Bertelsmann Foundation

15:15      Break
 
15:25     Panel 2 – Europe's China strategy for 2021 - economic and political priorities and challenges for EU China relations  

• Reinhard Bütikofer, Member of the European Parliament, Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance
• Gunnar Wiegand, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific, European External Action Service
• Lucrezia Poggetti, Analyst, MERICS
• Plamen Tonchev, Head of Asia Unit, Institute of International Economic Relations, MERICS European China Policy Fellow
  
  Moderator: Jakob Hanke Vela, Trade Reporter, POLITICO Europe

16:25      Closing remarks
     
16:30     End of conference